Irrelevant Appeal to History - 2014 will determine the course of our century says Cambridge Professor

Are you fed up hearing the much misquoted saying that "those who forget their history are condemned to repeat it"?  Of course, there is much truth in the idea but it is not true that what has happened in the past will necessarily happen again.  Sometimes things happen for the first time and sometimes things happen that never happen again.

According to the Daily Telegraph, a Cambridge Professor is claiming that dramatic events in 2014 will determine the course of our century because such events have happened in the middle of the second decade in the previous five centuries, for example the first world war broke out in 1914.

"Prof Boyle argues that 2014 will be important because previous five centuries have also hinged on events that took place in the middle of their second decade.

In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of Protestantism.

A century later 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe, which ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in 1715.

The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815 following the defeat of Napoleon, heralding a century of relative stability across Europe..

Prof Boyle, whose book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis is published on Thursday, said: “The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?"

This seems a rather silly argument for a Cambridge Professor to be making.  Could the Daily Telegraph, by any chance, be oversimplifying his thesis?

Telegraph article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/7832724/2014-will-determine-course-of-century-says-Cambridge-professor.html

Not using screen wash in your car can cause Legionnaires Disease

If you do not use screen wash in your car you are more likely to get Legionnaires disease than someone who does, according to a research by the Health Protection Agency. Bacteriology expert Prof Hugh Pennington

Many correlation and causation confusions are very silly indeed but this one is supported by someone whose expertise strengthens the claim.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8738000/8738281.stm

Is there any other possible explanation for the link?

Has Mount Everest Shrunk?

The percentage of students achieving an A grade at A Level has increased for 27 years in a row, so A Levels must be getting easier.

Professor Gordon Stobart of the University of London responds with an intriguing analogy.  In 1953 only two people got to the top of Mount Everest (and we know them well) yet today lots of people climb Mount Everest.  There was a day in 1996 when 39 people stood together on the summit.  So should we conclude that Mount Everest has shrunk?  The evidence is actually that the mountain is now 26 ft higher than it was in 1953.

So maybe we should not be asking whether Mount Everest has got smaller but rather what has happened to mountaineering in the last 50 years.  Modern climbers have better maps, guides, training and equipment.  Similarly, it could be the case that examination results have improved not because the standard of the qualifications has been reduced but rather because of what has happened to education (better teaching, better equipment, and so on).

This comes from an excellent debate hosted by Cambridge Assessment, which is archived at:
http://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/ca/Viewpoints/Viewpoint?id=132622

Brush teeth twice a day 'to prevent heart disease'

Research has found that people who brush their teeth less than twice a day are "70% more likely to develop heart disease."

The findings are published in the British Medical Journal and were reported by many news organisations but, as usual, some were less careful than others about how they reported this "connection".

The researchers actually interviewed people about a variety of lifestyle behaviours.  It is not clear why the press focussed on oral hygiene.

Most importantly, the researchers are not claiming that brushing teeth twice a day can prevent heart disease, or that not doing so can increase the risk.

The Telegraph's report was one of many which was misleading:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/7771698/Brush-teeth-twice-a-day-to-prevent-heart-disease.html